1
2	Racial Imbalance in the Manchester Public Schools, 2007 to 2012 Peter M. Prowda, PhD 80 County Rd Simsbury, CT 06070-1206 peteprowda@yahoo.com
3	Presentation Organizer Definitions Findings Method Enrollment Trends Birth Trends Racial Balance of the Schools Caveats Impact
4	Definitions Modified from the Regulations to Implement the Racial Imbalance Law, Sec 10-226e. A school is imbalanced if the percentage of minority students in that school falls outside the percentage of minority students in the district in the grades covered by that school plus or minus 25 percentage points.
5	Definition: Imbalanced An Example ; If Manchester Public Schools in Grades KF to 6 were 45% minority. Then a KF to 6 school would be imbalanced if its minority percentage were smaller than 45-25=20% or greater than 45+25=70%.
6	Definitions Diverse School The district minority percentage for all schools is fifty percent of more and the school minority percentage is greater than 25 percent and the school minority percentage is less than seventy-five percent.
7	Findings No schools will be imbalanced in 2007, 2008 or 2009. Buckley and Martin schools will be imbalanced starting in 2010, but with school minority percentages greater than 25 percent and Manchester’s school minority percentage greater than 50%, they will become “diverse schools.” In 2011 and 2012, Highland will be imbalanced but labeled a “diverse school.”
8	Method Obtain births by race from State Dept of Public Health for 1997 to 2006 by census block Convert block data to school attendance area. Project 2007 births Project kindergarten by race in 2008 to 2012 from birth by race data from 2003 to Observe pattern of minority and white enrollment in each of 10 schools from 2002 to 2007. Assume that pattern will continue from 2008 to 2012. Calculate projected imbalance for 2008 to 2012
9	Births Census Blocks
10	Births Births 1997 to 2006
11	Births Births 2001 and 2006
12	Enrollment Trends Birth to Kindergarten
13	Enrollment Trends Percentage Minority: Elementary
14	Enrollment Trends K-5 Percentage Minority
15	Enrollment Trends Migration of School-Age White and Minority Students
16	Racial Balance in the Schools 2007
17	Racial Balance in the Schools 2008
18	Racial Balance in the Schools 2009
19	Racial Balance in the Schools 2010
20	Racial Balance in the Schools 2011
21	Racial Balance in the Schools 2012
22	Caveats Economic Slowdown Hartford Schools/Sheff Settlement All-Day Kindergarten in Verplanck and a non-Title I school NCLB movement from In need of Improvement school(s) Interaction of school percent minority and white migration New race reporting in 2010
23	Impact How you manage racial balance will now be governed more by Board Policy 5117 on Racial Balance in the Manchester public Schools rather than state statute CGS 10-226e.
24	Racial Imbalance in the Manchester Public Schools, 2007 to 2012 Questions? Peter M. Prowda, PhD peteprowda@yahoo.com